Saturday, October 12, 2013

STH stormwatch (update) : Are we under rating Phailin?

Tropical Storm Risk venture a UK based organization has  categorized Phailin as a 'Super Cyclone' (see above); this seems to be more or less in keeping with the report of US Navy's JTWC (excerpt below), which pegs the wind speeds higher than IMetD forecasts :-

"WTIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 85.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT" 
   (130 KT = 240 kmph; 160 KT = 296 kmph) 
Meanwhile at approx 1600h IST, it has started raining in Kolkata which lies on the
periphery of the cyclone, at places moderately and at other places there is a steady 
drizzle. 
The IR image of Phailin at 1600h (IST) is placed below.
 
Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling.


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